TURKEY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

• First, historically, Turkey has served as a vital bridge between the West and the Islamic world.  Although Turkey is Muslim, it is officially secular, largely due to the vision of its modern founder, Kemal Attaturk.  He envisioned a nation still fundamentally in the Middle East, but one that would serve as a bridge between East and West.  For the last several decades, it has served that role.  Turkey has been one of the strongest allies of the US.  The US brought it into NATO and it was an ally of the US during the Cold War.  It was a major ally and force against communism since World War II and the US hoped that Turkey would be economically integrated into the EU and be even more vitally connected with the West.  Bordered by Iran, Iraq and Syria, secular Turkey is a powerful symbol of how democracy, capitalism and Islam can co-exist.  But at a time when Europe is struggling to integrate its 12 million Muslims, rejecting Turkey would give fodder to those Muslims who argue that the West will never accept them.  Therefore, the US vision of integrating democratic, capitalistic and Islamic Turkey into Europe is now in jeopardy.

• Second, what has happened?  This past week, the EU Commission released a report critical of the progress Turkey has made toward conforming to European standards and toward qualifying for membership in the EU.  Further, next month Turkey may find itself in trouble on a number of fronts with the EU.  Many analysts believe that if Turkey is rebuffed, an anti-European backlash will intensify and play into the hands of nationalists and Islamists, some of whom are already questioning the value of EU membership.  Further, many in Europe are questioning whether it is wise for the EU to admit a nation of 70 million that is overwhelmingly Muslim with only 3% of its land geographically a part of Europe.  The EU is upset that Turkey refuses to meet a deadline this year to open its port to the Greek-speaking part of Cyprus.  It also complains that Turkey does not treat its minorities as the EU believes it should, for it limits free speech and other limitations on liberty common in Europe.  So, if it is rejected by Europe, Turkey may look to the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa as alternatives to Europe and the US.  Indeed, support for EU membership within Turkey has plunged to 35%, half of what it was two years ago.  There is evidence of a growing Muslim resurgence within Turkey as laws are passed restricting the movement of women, of the use of alcoholic beverages and the introduction of government-recommended textbooks with Islamic themes.  There is also evidence that Turkey is turning to the emerging economic giants of Russia, India and China.  Russia already has interest in using Turkey as a distribution point for energy supplies to the Middle East and the southern Mediterranean.  Turkey is a land bridge between East and West and has served as a political and social bridge as well.  That function could be breaking down as its turns to the East.  The outcome of the EU membership initiative is of utmost importance for the Middle East, for the US and for Europe.  Our world remains an unstable and volatile place to live.

See Dan Bilesky’s article on Turkey in the New York Times (8 November 2006).