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This past week the United States crossed an important line—its population went over 300 million. In fact, its population is expected to reach 400 million in 37 years. At this rate, US population will double in 70 years. This is in stark contrast with many other developed countries. For example, Italy, Russia and Japan are among the countries that are expected to experience population declines. Even China’s population is expected to begin to decline in 2030. Meanwhile, the population of many developing countries is expected to triple by 2050, including Afghanistan, Burundi and Niger. Several thoughts:
1. As Lauren Elter reviews, population growth is determined by three factors—births, deaths and immigration. Americans have among the highest birth rates in the developed world—14 births for every 1,000 people each year. Also, medical technology has allowed the mortality rate to fall to roughly 8 deaths per 1,000 people annually. By comparison, Germany has 8 births and 10 deaths per 1,000 annually.
2. As Elter comments, while US population is growing, the makeup of that population is changing. For example, the elderly population is the largest it has ever been. People over the age of 65 account for 12% of the population. By 2050 it will be 21%. Therefore, there will be greater health care and retirement costs. By 2080, the annual cost of Medicare will be 11% of GDP (today it is 2.7%). Also, the worker to Social Security beneficiary ratio will shrink to 2 to 1 by 2030, where today it is 3.3 to 1.
3. Immigrants will help the US economy because they are paying taxes and paying into the Social Security fund as well. Today, for example, there are 35 million foreign-born people in the US—an all time high. Immigration accounts for 40% of population growth annually, up from 24% in the 1980s. One immigration specialist, Jeffrey Passel, estimates that immigrants and their US-born offsprings account for 55% of the past 100 million in the US. Without them, the US population would be at 245 million. As expected, Hispanics account for about 15% of the US population.
4. About 50% of the total population live in suburbs or “exburgs” of metropolitan areas, up from about 38% in the 1970s. Further, that population shift has been regional, for nearly 60% of the population lives in the South and the West. Of course much of this shift has to do with the decline of the manufacturing industry in the Midwest and the growing retiree population that seeks warmer climates. With these realities go the matter of water—will there be enough for these suburban areas in the South and the West especially? Will there be adequate energy resources to fuel this economy in these areas where transportation is a given?
In short, the US needs it immigrants to pay taxes and to provide the source of jobs. But there are major issues looming on the horizon as the nation seeks to meet the needs of an aging and changing population. It is wonderful that the US is not experiencing the population decline that Europe and other parts of the world are experiencing, but these population challenges will nonetheless require leadership and a willingness to change.
See Lauren Elter in the Wall Street Journal (21-22 October 2006); Robert Samuelson, Washington Post (4 October 2006). |
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