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O There is little doubt that there are marked signs of improvement in the troubled country of Iraq. For example, the latest numbers demonstrate a 55% drop in attacks since the surge of US troops reached its full strength in June and a 60% drop in civilian causalities. David Ignatius writes: “Only someone with a heart of stone would not rejoice at this news. When you think of the suffering Iraqis have endured through the decades of Saddam Hussein’s brutality, the years of punishing economic sanctions, the US invasion and the terrible aftermath of insurgency and sectarian killing—even a little bit of progress is worth a cheer.”
There are several conclusions we can reach about these signs of progress:
- It is very clear that al Qaeda is losing. By using Saddam-like tactics of intimidation and terror, al Qaeda has failed and the backfire has triggered a revolt among Sunni tribal leaders. Tribal sheiks and former Baathists have joined in this effort, which is nothing short of astounding. Remarkably, Osama bin Laden in a 22 October audiotape scolded his followers for their tactics. “Mistakes have been made during holy wars,” he said. “Some of you have been lax in one duty, which is to unite your ranks.” One Arab journalist has commented: “It is the first time that bin Laden recognizes the error committed by the members of his organization and in particular the excesses committed in Iraq.”
- Iran seems to be backing off, at least for the moment, in its involvement in Iraq. The Iranian-backed Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr has sharply curtailed its operations. The shelling of the Green Zone has ended. All evidence indicates that the flow of deadly bombs (IEDs) from Iran has stopped. US Ambassador in Iraq, Ryan Crocker, recently announced that Iran has agreed to resume security talks with the US about Iraq. All indications are that Iran sees it is a better policy to work with America now, hasten its exit and then exert more influence in Iraq after the US departure.
- Although there does seem to be military progress, there is little evidence of significant political progress. Few would doubt that the difficult task for Iraq is building a nation state where Sunni, Shiite and Kurd can work together. Iraq is not anywhere near this goal. The military successes we are now enjoying must be leveraged to produce the requisite political progress. To not do so is to risk losing the future of Iraq.
The United States is in a delicate situation as we move into 2008. Kudos must go to President Bush and General David Petraeus for their collaboration and strategy nicknamed the “surge.” But these are short-term gains that must be the foundation for the more difficult long-term gains. Time is of the essence. May God in His mercy grant us this time. Let’s be praying to that end.
See David Ignatius in the Washington Post (21 November 2007). |
