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For years, Kenya has been held up as a stable, prosperous country in the troubled continent of Africa. But no more! The current president, Mwai Kibaki, has made a bold, horrific grab for power that has resulted in unimaginable human horror.
It all started with December’s disputed presidential elections. On 27 December, Kibaki’s challenger, Raila Odinga, had a substantial lead in the votes counted. But three days after the vote, on live television, paramilitary police stormed the Kenyatta International Conference Center, where the vote was being counted, with Odinga maintaining a significant lead. Minutes later, the head of the election commission declared Kibaki the winner, and he was sworn in later that day. That decision fanned simmering resentment against Kibaki’s tribe, the Kikuyu, the largest of Kenya’s 42 tribes. (The Kikuyus dominate the government and businesses of the country.) In sections of the capital city, Nairobi, violence exploded. Starting on New Year’s Eve, tens of thousands of Kalenjin and Luo tribesman, tore through Kikuyu sections, and the Kikuyu struck back in revenge. Hence, the horrific violence that now permeates Kenya. Intense intentional pressure ensued, forcing both Kibaki and Odinga to meet and work out a compromise. As of this writing, no agreement has been reached.
Why is Kenya so important? A potential implosion of Kenya is especially worrying to the US because Kenya is a frontline state in the war on terror, a bulwark against its volatile, jihadi-infested neighbor Somalia. Terrorists have occasionally slipped across Kenya’s border, as when al Qaeda bombed the American embassy in Kenya and Tanzania, another neighbor. Additionally, there are US special operations teams based in Kenya at Manda Bay, on the coast just south of Somalia. Instability and violence in Kenya can only aid al Qaeda’s penetration of eastern Africa!
As a recent report in Time magazine contends, there are three challenges in Kenya, which are really the challenges of all Africa:
- The challenge of poverty. Despite Kenya’s successful economy, 58% of it people remain poor.
- Corruption is rampant in Kenya, as in most of Africa. Kibaki’s government has a reputation of doing hundreds of millions of dollars of corrupt deals. In fact, throughout Africa, 36 of the 52 countries are afflicted with rampant graft and corruption. Bribery, scandals and unethical behavior are the norm for this troubled continent. To do business in much of Africa mandates dishonesty and lack of integrity. One cannot build a system of trust and stability with so much corruption.
- Kenya and all of Africa have weak democratic institutions. Power is maintained through the military and not through democratic elections. Incumbents routinely change the constitution of their respective countries to remain in power.
In the short run, it is difficult to be optimistic about Kenya or, for that matter, all of Africa. Corruption, dishonesty and fraud are common in the continent. Kenya is the economic engine of East Africa. If it falls into chaos, all of East Africa will be affected.
A few years ago, Robert D. Kaplan, wrote a profound book entitled, The Ends of the Earth: A Journey to the Frontiers of Anarchy. Kaplan argues that in a band of nations stretching across Africa and into parts of Asia, the nation state is ceasing to exist and is being replaced by tribalism and anarchy. Tragically, what is occurring in Kenya could support Kaplan’s thesis that tribalism is making the nation-state irrelevant. If true, we could be facing a greater challenge in the 21st century than we imagined.
See The Economist (12 January 2008), pp. 39-40 and Time (21 January 2008), pp. 42-45.
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