IRAN, NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND WAR IN 2010?

• First, what is the evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear weapon capability?  In the fall of 2009, the world community discovered a secret uranium-enrichment plant in a mountainside on a well-defended military compound outside the city of Qom.  The existence of this facility is a clear breach of the safeguard agreements and promises Iran made as a signer of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  Iran remains most defiant about this issue, arguing that it has “nuclear rights” as a nation but that its efforts are all directed toward the “civilian” uses of nuclear power.  No one believes that!  What is required to acquire nuclear weapons?  (1)  Fissile material (e.g., highly enriched uranium (HEU), or plutonium); (2) a delivery system for the warhead; (3) and the warhead itself.  The enrichment plants at Natanz, Qom and perhaps other secret plants give Iran a path to HEU.  Iran is also building a heavy-water reactor at Arak, which will produce large quantities of plutonium as a by-product.  (This will not be completed for several years.)  Iran has also been working hard at developing ballistic missiles.  It has liquid-fuel Shahab-3 missiles, with a range of 810 miles or more, which could reach Israel.  In May it tested the 2,000 kilometer Sejjil missile, a solid-fuel rocket that could be fired from mobile launchers.  Missiles are Iran’s quickest and most reliable delivery system.  Finally, Iran has also been working on fitting a bomb inside a missile cone.  International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) inspectors have found evidence that Iran had designs to make uranium hemispheres used in warheads and had experimented with ultra-fast triggers that would set off the nuclear explosion.  Therefore, the only major remaining challenge for Iran is the availability of fissile material.  At Natanz, Iran has 8,000 centrifuge enrichment machines.  It has accumulated a stock of 5% enriched uranium but it is much easier to produce more once you learn how to do it.  Iran refuses to abide by the NPT, to answer any questions about its actions and has threatened to increase its enrichment program 10-fold.  What the world does not know is whether there are other secret facilities also enriching uranium.  Iran has also hinted that it may actually pull out of the NPT.  There is no doubt about Iran’s intentions—it is seeking nuclear weapons capability and once it achieves that, the world will change!

• Second, what should the world community do?  President Obama has tried his policy of “engagement” with Iran.  No one would say that has been successful!  In fact, Iran seems more belligerent and arrogant than ever.  There was a proposed initial step that would have Iran’s low-enriched uranium taken out of the country and enriched in Russia, for example.  At first, Iran seemed interested in pursuing this “first step.”  But, it did not take long for the world to see that there was no serious interest in this option.  There is no question that, based on NPT, Iran’s actions are illegal and it hence has no credibility with the international community.  But, despite these truths, why has the world not brought Iran to accountability?  The answer is quite simple.  Russia has been selling Iran tons of conventional weapons and has been helping Iran complete a nuclear-power reactor at Bushehr.  China has investment contracts in Iran worth an estimated $120 billion.  Iran is also one of China’s largest suppliers of oil.  Several European countries maintain significant amounts of trade with Iran.  Quite incredibly, until the Qom facility was discovered, both Russia and China have insisted that Iran was not doing anything illegal.  However, as Iran nears completion of its nuclear program and as sites like Qom are discovered, a hands-off strategy is no longer acceptable—at least so it seems.  The nations most concerned about Iran are other Arab states, for the horror of arch rival Persia having nuclear weapons can only mean intense nuclear proliferation throughout the Middle East.  Few see that possibility as comforting; it is in fact terrifying!  So, is military action possible?  Economic sanctions have not worked and it is doubtful that any future sanctions will work.  It is even questionable whether Russia and China would support harsher sanctions anyway. 

• So, thirdly, is military action against Iran possible?  There is no nation that would carry out military action other than the US or Israel.  Israel destroyed Saddam Hussein’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and that is the key reason Iran has dispersed its facilities throughout the nation and hidden others.  This, no single military strike would work.  For Israel to strike Iran would pose a formidable challenge.  Iran is at the limits of Israel’s range, even with air-to-air fueling and Israel would need to cross the airspace of other nations.  Further, to do so, Israel would somehow need to neutralize Iran’s air force.  For Israel to strike, it would not be a simple operation.  Further, it would lead to significant retaliation from Iran, undoubtedly using Hezbollah and Hamas.  Either as a combined operation with Israel or if it acted alone, perhaps the only possible nation that could achieve some success would be America.  But we are fighting two wars now and it seems nearly impossible to imagine an air war over Iran as a possibility right now.  Attacking Iran would forever change the Middle East and Iran’s retaliation would no doubt be significant.  So, at least for now, the world community is in effect pursuing a policy of appeasement with Iran.  And history tells us that appeasement is a disastrous policy when it comes to an evil nation such as Iran.  (One only has to consider Nazi Germany from 1936 to 1939 to understand the point.)  The world community should unite behind a determined policy that if Iran does not halt its nuclear operations, combined military action by the world’s leading nations will occur.  If that threat were credible, Iran would stop, I believe.  But under the current situations, I cannot envision the world community uniting in such a manner.  Instead, the world will continue down its path of appeasement and Iran will have nuclear capability.  Then, Israel, the United States’ forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the other Arab states will all be vulnerable.  A nuclear Iran is an unimaginable reality right now.  But unless the world is united in stopping Iran with a credible threat of military action, it will occur.  In so many ways, year 2010 must settle the question of whether the world will permit a nuclear Iran. 

See the incredibly insightful article in The Economist (5 December 2009), pp. 27-30.  This Perspective was most dependent on this article.

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