After more than a decade of legal and political roadblocks, RU-486 has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for abortions in early pregnancies. This decision represents a breakthrough in abortion access, especially in areas of the US where abortion services are rare or nonexistent. How should we think about this decision?

First of all, some details about this medication and the FDA restrictions. RU-486, also known as mifepristone, has been approved by the FDA for use in the doctor's office only within seven weeks after conception. Patients must have a follow-up exam and doctors must also be able to perform surgical abortions if needed. The procedure involves three steps. Step1: The dosage for the procedure involves 3 tablets of mifepristone to block progesterone, a hormone necessary for pregnancy. (This drug will be available in about a month). Step 2: Two days later, two tablets of misoprostol are taken in the doctor's office to expel the fetus from the womb. Step 3: About 14 days later after initiating the abortion, the woman returns to her doctor to be certain that she is no longer pregnant and that there is no remaining fetal tissue. Are there side effects? Yes, there is abdominal pain, bleeding and nausea, usually lasting 9-16 days. About 1% of women who take the drug experience severe bleeding, sometimes requiring blood transfusions and surgical abortions. In about 5% of cases, the procedure does not work and a complete abortion is required. So, this is not a quick-fix. There are side effects and in some cases severe cases of these effects.

The FDA also requires that the Population Council, a nonprofit group that holds the US patent to RU-486, keep track of how many women suffer serious side effects and the number of cases in which the pill fails to induce abortion.

It is not clear how many women will choose to use this procedure. The drug can be used only within 7 weeks of conception and just about one-third of abortions performed in the US occur at that stage. Furthermore, the physical side-effects to the surgical abortion are not as risky, so women may not choose RU-486 for that reason. Finally, in some states abortion laws might restrict the drug's use. For example, many states require that abortion providers register and report every abortion. Some have detailed requirements for office and clinic designs. As a result, some doctors who could administer the drug may choose not to. But, over time, the drug will make abortion a more private procedure. More than 600,000 European women have used this method and it now accounts for more than a third of all abortions in France. So, over time it will definitely increase abortions in the US.

If we believe that life begins at conception, then RU-486 leads to the death of a child. Furthermore, with the known side effects of the drug, do we really think this will be the end of the matter? As Chuck Colson has observed, it's hard to imagine trial lawyers not placing the distributors of RU-486 and the doctors who prescribe it in their legal sights. The result may be multi-million lawsuits and insurance companies could then stop underwriting the drug. This then could pull the plug on RU-486. A rather strange scenario to image: Those who have advocated the drug seeing its demise at the hands of trial lawyers!! In my judgment, the FDA acted on the basis of political pressure in the middle of a presidential election. Their hasty, risky decision is not in the interests of women and certainly not in the interests of our country.

See New York Times (29 September 2000), front page story and editorial page, and Breakpoint (29 September 2000).

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IRAQ REGAINS POWER THROUGH OIL

Iraq now exports about 2.3 million barrels a day of crude oil into the world market, so thirsty for oil that prices have soared recently, spurring an international backlash. The Iraqi exports are significantly more than the combined spare production capacity of all producers at this time. So, it seems, the world now depends on Iraqi oil!! Saddam is in the best geopolitical position he has been in a decade.

This position is producing a greater assertiveness on the part of Iraq. For example, nearly three weeks ago, an Iraqi fighter jet flew over part of Saudi Arabia for the first time in a decade, leading US officials to warn that Washington will strike back if such
provocations continue. In addition, Iraq has accused Kuwait of stealing oil from Iraq's southern oil fields through wells drilled horizontally across the border. This accusation seems ominous because it was the same charge that Iraq leveled against Kuwait before its invasion in 1990. Also, Iraq is quietly threatening to use its oil power to have the remaining sanctions imposed nearly a decade ago removed. These sanctions are breaking down in the region anyway and this position of oil power will only lead to their final removal.

It is also clear that Saddam is using his new prosperity from the sale of oil and the increasing prices to rebuild his military machine. So, with the growing pressure of increased prices, the growing shortage of oil and the world's dependence on oil once again, Saddam will once again be in the driver's seat. His influence and clout will no doubt grow. The world community will find it less attractive to maintain the sanctions and Iraq will be back to where it was pre-Gulf War. The geopolitical realities of a world dependent on oil are once again becoming clear. The world cannot ignore the growing influence of Saddam Hussein. He is not a stabilizing force in the Middle East. He is a destabilizing force bent on his own personal delusions of power and grandeur. He hates Israel and he envisions a powerful Iraq, none of which are in the interest of the United States. Our world is unpredictable and unstable!

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WEN HO LEE AND JUSTICE

As you no doubt know, Wen Ho Lee has pleaded guilty to one felony count of mishandling classified information. This resulted from a plea-bargaining arrangement between his lawyers and the Justice Department of the US. How should we think about this?

That Janet Reno and her justice department bungled this case is now clear. The way he was treated, their handling of evidence and the case against Lee was a study in incompetency and error.

What Lee has not explained and probably never will is what he did with the large amount of classified data that he downloaded to computer tapes that were subsequently destroyed. This is a serious offense but the government's case against Lee began to crumble when it became increasingly clear that it could not show Lee was a spy. What prompted this case was the fact that the Chinese government sometime in the last 1980s acquired sensitive nuclear design information, in particular regarding the miniaturized W-88 warhead used on the Trident D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile. There are therefore two facts we now know: (1) Lee was the victim of overzealous prosecutors and an administration that wanted desperately to evade charges of lax security in US weapons labs. (2) The real spy or spies are still out there and probably will never be caught.

Everyone in the Clinton administration had a powerful interest in pretending that by prosecuting Lee they were getting to the root of espionage. We now know that they were not!! The Lee case is a tragedy and a perfect lesson in mismanagement and incompetency. This is another example of a flawed justice department and a tragic Attorney General. Whoever becomes the next president, choosing a competent and decisive Attorney General must be a priority. We cannot stand four more years of the incompetency of a Janet Reno!

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